Orcutt Start/Sit: Key decisions as playoffs near


By Jeremiah Orcutt - FantasyHolics



Week 13, two weeks until playoffs start (for most leagues). The Panthers and Cardinals are on bye this week. Let’s make some good decisions.

QB

Start: Trevor Lawrence @ Lions

As the season goes on Trevor Lawrence seems to get better. He had 30 Fantasy Points last week and he has been over 20 points in 5 of the last 6 weeks. This week, even though he is on the road, Lawrence takes on the beloved Lions defense giving up 24.6 points per week to the QB. The Lion’s defense has gotten better but this game should be high scoring, since the Jags defense isn’t much better.

Start: Jimmy Garoppolo vs Dolphins

Jimmy G steadily puts up 15-20 points each week. This week Miami travels to San Fran. Jimmy G gets to take on a Miami offense giving up 21.1 points per game. I own Jimmy G in multiple leagues, and he is nice to have. Good solid points.

Sleepers: Jared Goff vs Jaguars, Mike White @ Vikings, Kenny Pickett @ Falcons

Sit: Ryan Tannehill @ Eagles

Tannehill leans on Derrick Henry and the offense runs through him but if they expect to win, they have to pass the ball and the Eagles will sell out to stop Henry and force Tannehill to throw. Not a good move for Tannehill. He is facing a Eagles defense that only allows 11.5 points per game to the QB.

Sit: Deshaun Watson @ Texans

So many narratives in this game. Watson coming off his 11-game suspension and facing his former team. It is a well written script, but it has been over 2 years since he has played in an NFL game. I know you are going to want to throw him in during his first game, but I would wait one week and see how he does.

RB

Start: Dameon Pierce vs Browns

This is normally the segment where I tell you to start your RBs against the Texans, and that is still true, start Nick Chubb. What I want to tell you is to start Dameon Pierce at home versus the second worst defense against the run, the Browns. They are giving up 26.4 points per game to the RB. Pierce had a down week last week, but you need him in your lineup this week.

Start: Kyren Williams vs Seattle

Williams’s usage has grown every week since he was given his shot. He is clearly getting the opportunity and he faces a Seattle defense that is giving up 25.8 points per game to the RB. Don’t go crazy benching studs to get him in lineups but if for injury or bye week, you need someone, he could be a good start.

Sleeper: Jaylen Warren @Atlanta, Brian Robinson Jr. @ Giants, Cordarrelle Patterson vs Steelers.

Sit: Jeff Wilson Jr. @ 49ers

Jeff Wilson has been a stud when he has been a starter this season either in San Fran or in Miami but this week, he faces 49ers run defense that is shutting down RBs. Last week they held Alvin Kamara to 13 rushing yards and 37 receiving yards. They are only allowing 13.6 points per game.

Sit: Alvin Kamara vs Buccaneers

Kamara just hasn’t been a part of the offense with Andy Dalton under center and that doesn’t change this week against the No. 3 defense against the run only allowing 16.4 points per week. Sit Kamara this week if you can.

WR

Start: Christian Kirk vs Lions

If we are attacking the worst defense in the league with the QB, then let’s go ahead and attack it with that QBs No. 1 WR in Christian Kirk. Kirk had a down week last week, but he has consistently put up more than 10 points every week. Let’s get Kirk in your lineups and hope he has a blow-up week against a Lions defense allowing 32.4 fantasy points per week to the position.

Start: George Pickens @ Falcons

The Pickett to Pickens connection is real and it has a chance to prove itself once again. The Falcon’s secondary has been one of the worst in the league giving up 32.4 fantasy points per game. Pickens is seeing more than 75 percent of the snap share and he is averaging over 10 points a week with Kenny Pickett under center. You can start Pickens as a WR3/Flex

Sleeper: Drake London vs Steelers, Garrett Wilson @ Vikings, Courtland Sutton @ Ravens

Sit: Terry McLaurin @ Giants

The Giants defense has been the truth all season against the WR position only allowing opposing WRs 22.8 points per game. McLaurin’s QB Heinicke hasn’t been terrible but he’s not great and McLaurin shouldn’t expect to get more that 13 points this week. Terry is no more than a WR3/Flex option.

Sit: Amari Cooper/Donavon Peoples-Jones vs Texans

I told you to sit Watson, and I am telling to sit his WRs, this week. Since the Texans are the worst run defense in the league, I expect the Browns to run the ball. I also expect Watson to have bad timing with his WRs. The Texans are respectable against the WR group also, only allowing 23.8 fantasy points per game. Sit them this week, let’s see how it goes.

TE

Start: Tyler Higbee vs Seahawks

Someone has to catch the ball in LA, the only problem I see is possibly limited usage as Higbee is used a lot as blocker since the line is so bad but with Stafford out again and the rookie Perkins starting, Higbee could be a QBs best friend. Not to mention, Seattle allows TEs to get 15.4 fantasy points per game.

Sleeper: Evan Engram @ Lions, Juwan Johnson @ Buccaneers, Tyler Conklin @ Vikings

Sit: Mike Gesicki vs 49ers

Meh, Gesicki has had flashes in this offense, but the 49ers are just too good against the TE position. Last week they held Juwan Johnson to zero-point-zero fantasy points. I don’t think Gesicki get an opportunity against a defense allowing 6.9 points per game.

Thank you for reading my Start/Sit Column. Good luck in Week 13. You can find this and the rest of my work over at FantasyHolics on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/FantasyHolic

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By Jeremiah Orcutt

FantasyHolics

An Air Force veteran, Jeremiah Orcutt is from Hillsboro. You can find the rest of his work year round on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/FantasyHolics.

An Air Force veteran, Jeremiah Orcutt is from Hillsboro. You can find the rest of his work year round on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/FantasyHolics.